In early april we pointed to preliminary evidence that the Russian economy was defying predictions of collapse, even as Western countries introduced unprecedented sanctions.Recent data further support this view.Helped along by capital controls and high interest rates, the rouble is now as valuable as it was before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February.Russia appears to be keeping up with payments of its foreign-currency bonds.he real economy is surprisingly resilient too.True, Russian consumer prices have risen by more than 10% since the beginning of the year, as the rouble’s initial depreciation made imports more expensive and many Western companies pulled out, reducing supply.But “real-time” measures of Russian economic activity are largely holding up.Total electricity consumption has fallen only a smidge.

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4月初，我们曾指出，初步证据表明，尽管西方国家对俄罗斯实施了前所未有的制裁，但俄罗斯经济并未像预期的那样崩溃。最近的数据进一步支持了这一观点。在资本管制和高利率的推动下，卢布现在与2月底俄罗斯入侵乌克兰之前一样值钱。俄罗斯似乎在偿还其外币债券。俄罗斯实体经济的韧性也令人惊讶。诚然，由于卢布最初的贬值使得进口更加昂贵，许多西方公司撤出，减少了供应，俄罗斯的消费价格自今年年初以来已经上涨了10%以上。但是，俄罗斯经济活动的“实时”指标在很大程度上保持了稳定。总用电量仅略有下降。

After a lull in March, Russians seem to be spending fairly freely on cafes, bars and restaurants, according to a spending tracker run by Sberbank, Russia’s largest bank.On April 29th the central bank lowered its key interest rate from 17% to 14%, a sign that a financial panic which began in February has eased slightly.The Russian economy is undoubtedly shrinking, but some economists’ predictions of a gdp decline of up to 15% this year are starting to look pessimistic.Even before the invasion Russia was a fairly closed economy, limiting sanctions’ bite.Even before the invasion Russia was a fairly closed economy, limiting sanctions’ bite.But the biggest reason for the economy’s resilience relates to fossil fuels.

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根据俄罗斯最大的银行——俄罗斯联邦储蓄银行的支出跟踪，经历3月份的一段淡季之后，俄罗斯人似乎在咖啡馆、酒吧和餐馆上的消费相当自由。4月29日，中央银行将基准利率从17%下调至14%，这标志着始于2月份的金融恐慌有所缓解。毫无疑问，俄罗斯的经济在萎缩，但一些经济学家对俄今年GDP降幅高达15%的预测似乎要落空了。即便在入侵前，俄罗斯也是一个相当封闭的经济体，这让西方的制裁效果有限。即便在入侵前，俄罗斯也是一个相当封闭的经济体，这让西方的制裁效果有限。

Since the invasion Russia has exported at least $65bn-worth of fossil fuels via shipments and pipelines, suggests the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, a think-tank in Finland.In the first quarter of 2022 the government’s revenues from hydrocarbons rose by over 80% year on year.On May 4th the European Commission proposed a ban on imports of all Russian oil that would come into full force by the end of the year.Until then, expect the Russian economy to continue to trundle along.

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芬兰智库能源与清洁空气研究中心表示，自入侵以来，俄罗斯已通过船运和管道出口了至少650亿美元的化石燃料。在2022年第一季度，政府来自化石燃料的收入同比增长了80%以上。5月4日，欧盟委员会提议禁止进口所有俄罗斯石油，该禁令将于今年年底全面生效。在那之前，预计俄罗斯经济还会继续缓慢发展。