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经济学人:超半数已知人类传染病因气候变化而恶化

A new study finds climate events such as flooding, heat waves and drought worsen more than half of the known diseases that infect people.These diseases include malaria, cholera and anthrax.Researchers examined medical literature of established cases of such diseases.They found out that 218 out of the known 375 human infectious diseases, or 58 percent, seemed to be made worse by extreme weather connected to climate change.The results appeared this week in the publication Nature Climate Change.The study connected more than 1000 pathways from climate events to sick people.In some cases, heavy rains and flooding sicken people through disease-carrying mosquitos, rats and deer.Other events, like warming oceans and heat waves, spoil seafood and droughts bring bats carrying viral infections to people.Medical doctors, going back to the days of ancient Greek civilization, have long connected disease to weather.But this study shows how widespread the influence of climate is on human health.“If climate is changing, the risk of these diseases are changing,” said study co-leader Dr. Jonathan Patz, director of the Global Health Institute at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

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一项新的研究发现，洪水、热浪和干旱等气候事件可使超半数已知人类传染病恶化。这些疾病包括疟疾、霍乱和炭疽。研究人员查阅了已确定的此类疾病病例的医学文献。他们发现，在已知的375种人类传染病中，有218种（58%）似乎因与气候变化有关的极端天气而恶化。这项研究结果发表在本周的《自然气候变化》上。这项研究将1000多条由气候事件导致疾病的路径与病人联系起来。在某些情况下，暴雨和洪水通过携带疾病的蚊子、老鼠和鹿使人们患病。其他事件，如海洋变暖和热浪会使海鲜变质，干旱会把携带传染病病毒的蝙蝠带给人类。早在古希腊文明时期，医生们就将疾病与天气联系在一起。但这项研究表明，气候对人类健康的影响是多么地广泛。该研究的共同负责人、威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校全球健康研究所所长乔纳森·帕茨博士说：“如果气候在变化，那么这些疾病的风险也在变化。”

Dr. Carlos del Rio is an Emory University infectious disease specialist who was not involved in the study.He said, “The findings of this study are terrifying and illustrate well the enormous consequences of climate change on human pathogens.”Del Rio said humans “need to all work together to prevent” disaster from climate change.In addition to looking at infectious diseases, the researchers explored data on all kinds of human sicknesses, including non-infectious conditions like asthma, allergies and animal bites.They wanted to learn how many sicknesses could connect to climate events in some way.They found a total of 286 unique sicknesses, and 223 of them seemed to be worsened by climate events.The study found nine of the conditions were reduced by climate events.Camilo Mora, a climate data expert at the University of Hawaii, is a co-leader of the study.He said the study is not about predicting future cases.“These are things that have already happened,” he noted.

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卡洛斯·德尔·里奥博士是埃默里大学的传染病专家，他没有参与这项研究。他说：“这项研究的结果很可怕，很好地说明了气候变化对人类病原体造成的巨大后果。”德尔·里奥说，人类“需要齐心协力防止”气候变化带来的灾难。除了研究传染病，研究人员还探讨了各种人类疾病（包括哮喘、过敏和动物叮咬等非传染性疾病）的数据。他们想知道有多少疾病在某种程度上与气候事件有关。他们发现总共有286种独特的疾病，其中223种疾病似乎因气候事件而恶化。该研究发现，其中9种疾病因气候事件而减弱。夏威夷大学的气候数据专家卡米洛·莫拉是这项研究的联合负责人。他说，这项研究的目的并不是预测未来的病例。他指出：“这些都是已经发生的事情”。

One example Mora knows from his own experience.About five years ago, Mora’s home in rural Colombia was flooded, creating a breeding ground for mosquitoes.Mora contracted Chikungunya, a virus spread by mosquito bites.He survived, but he still suffers pain related to the disease.In another case, the remains of a reindeer dead from anthrax were unearthed as the Siberian permafrost melted from warming in 2016.A child touched the dead animal, got anthrax, and an outbreak spread.Dr. Aaron Bernstein is with the Center for Climate, Health, and the Global Environment at Harvard School of Public Health.He and other outside experts said the study is a good warning about climate and health for now and the future.Bernstein added in an email, “But of course, it only reports on what we already know and what’s yet unknown about pathogens may be yet more compelling about how preventing further climate change may prevent future disasters like COVID-19.”I'm Caty Weaver.

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莫拉从自己的经历中举了一个例子。大约5年前，莫拉在哥伦比亚农村的家被洪水淹没，那里成为了蚊子的滋生地。莫拉感染了奇昆古尼亚热病，一种通过蚊子叮咬传播的病毒。他虽然活了下来，但却仍然遭受着与该疾病相关的疼痛。在另一个病例中，2016年西伯利亚永冻土层因天气变暖而融化时，发现了一只死于炭疽的驯鹿的遗骸。一个孩子摸了那只死了的动物，得了炭疽病，随后爆发了炭疽病疫情。亚伦·伯恩斯坦博士就职于哈佛大学公共卫生学院气候、健康和全球环境中心。他和其他外部专家表示，这项研究对现在和未来的气候和健康是一个很好的警告。伯恩斯坦在一封电子邮件中补充道：“但当然，它只报告了我们已经知道的情况，而有关病原体的未知情况可能会更有说服力，说明防止进一步的气候变化可能会阻止未来发生诸如新冠疫情之类的灾难。”凯蒂·韦弗为您播报。

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