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经济学人:世界银行警告--全球滞胀风险上升
The World Bank slashed its forecast of global GDP growth this year, to 2.9%.It warned that the risk of stagflation was considerable and that the world should prepare for “several years of above-average inflation and below-average growth”.Real income per person in 2023 is expected to remain below pre-pandemic levels in 40% of developing economies.The OECD also cut its forecast for growth, but played down the risk of stagflation; it expects inflation to start easing later this year.Appearing before a Senate committee, Janet Yellen acknowledged that America’s high level of inflation was “unacceptable”, and asked Congress to “mitigate” rising household costs through a variety of measures, such as lowering prescription-drug prices.The American treasury secretary earlier denied claims in a new book that she had told Joe Biden to reduce the size of his $1.9trn stimulus package last year because it would stoke inflation.
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世界银行将今年全球GDP增长预期大幅下调至2.9%。世界银行警告称,滞胀风险相当大,世界应该为“数年通胀高于平均水平、经济增长低于平均水平”做好准备。预计到2023年,40%的发展中经济体的人均实际收入将低于疫情前的水平。经济合作与发展组织也下调了经济增长预期,但淡化了滞胀的风险; 该组织预计通货膨胀将在今年晚些时候开始缓解。珍妮特·耶伦在出席参议院委员会的听证会时承认,美国的高通胀水平是“不可接受的”,并要求国会通过降低处方药价格等多种措施来“缓和”不断上涨的家庭成本。这位美国财政部长早些时候否认了新书中的说法,书中称她去年曾告诉乔·拜登减少1.9万亿美元经济刺激计划的规模,因为这将加剧通胀。
Target issued a profit warning because of a build-up in its inventory, which it will clear by heavily discounting prices on a range of goods.Like other retailers, the department-store chain is adapting to a change in consumer spending towards household essentials, such as food and fuel, and away from frivolous products.In Britain retail sales fell at an annual rate of 1.1% in May, the biggest drop since January 2021, when the country was in lockdown.The four-day Platinum Jubilee weekend provided a small fillip.Retail footfall was up by 6.9% versus the average for May.Spending in pubs rose by 74%, year on year.The Turkish lira fell sharply again, after Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s president, reiterated his pledge to continue cutting interest rates, despite annual inflation running at 73.5%.
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塔吉特发布了盈利预警,原因是库存积压,该公司将通过对一系列商品大幅打折来消除库存积压。像其他零售商一样,这家百货商店连锁店正在适应消费者支出的变化,转向家庭必需品,如食品和燃料,而不是非必要产品。英国5月份零售额同比下降1.1%,这是自2021年1月该国实施封锁以来的最大降幅。为期四天的白金禧年周末活动带来了一点小小的提振。与5月份的平均水平相比,零售客流量增长了6.9%。酒吧消费同比增长了74%。土耳其总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安重申将继续降息,尽管年通货膨胀率高达73.5%,之后土耳其里拉再次大幅下跌。
Mr Erdogan has pressed the nominally independent central bank to reduce rates, which he hopes will boost growth.But the weak lira is pushing up the cost of imports, especially for food and energy.Mr Erdogan has called interest rates “the mother of evils”.This week he said only “those living a charmed existence” benefit from them.Australia’s central bank made a more assertive push to tame inflation by raising its main interest rate by half a percentage point, to 0.85%.That follows a similar increase in May.India’s central bank also lifted its benchmark rate by half a point, to 4.9%, the biggest rise in over a decade.
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埃尔多安已向名义上独立的央行施压,要求其降低利率,他希望这将提振经济增长。但疲软的里拉推高了进口成本,尤其是食品和能源的进口成本。埃尔多安称利率为“罪恶之母”。本周,他表示,只有“那些过着迷人生活的人”才能从中受益。澳大利亚央行在抑制通胀方面采取了更强硬的举措,将主要利率上调0.5个百分点,至0.85%。在此之前,5月份也出现了类似的增幅。印度央行还将基准利率上调0.5个基点,至4.9%,这是十多年来的最大涨幅。
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