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经济学人:代代叠加:投机泡沫(2)

Economics Brief

Overlapping generations: speculative bubble

经济学简论

代代叠加：投机泡沫

Recent research is less definitive.Franois Geerolf of the University of California, Los Angeles believes that Japan suffers from dynamic inefficiency.And he cannot rule out the possibility that all the G7 countries (and nine others) suffer similarly.If so, the implications are provocative.

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近来的研究少了一些确定性。洛杉矶加州大学的弗朗索瓦·吉奥尔夫认为，日本饱受动态无效率之苦。而且他还不可能排除所有的G7国家（以及另外9个国家）也同样饱受其苦的可能性。倘若如此，其含义是爆炸性的。

They imply that G7 public debt is soaking up money that would otherwise be spent on further augmenting an overbuilt capital stock.Insofar as the proceeds of this government borrowing are spent on health care and pensions, the elderly benefit disproportionately.Perhaps, then, G7 public debt is diverting unfruitful efforts to provide for the future into providing for the elderly instead.

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它们表明，G7的公共债务正在吸收本该用于进一步扩张已经过度建设的资本存量上面的钱。只要这种政府的举债行为的收入花在了医疗保健和养老金上面，老年人就能不成比例地获益。这样，G7的公共债务或许正在从毫无成效的供养未来的尝试转向供养老年人。

Several scholars, including Qian Liangxin of Anhui University, also point out that China often ploughs more into its capital stock than it earns from it.At China’s stage of development, this may not be a bad thing, because the economy’s capital-intensity is still in flux.But the combination of fast growth and repressed returns on saving may help explain why China is so prone to speculative bubbles, especially in property.Working-age Chinese overpay for houses, many of which stand empty, on the assumption that they will sell them at higher prices—not to a greater fool necessarily, but to a younger, richer one.

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包括安徽大学的钱良心（Qian Liangxin）在内的多位学者还指出，中国经常把比从中挣的还要多的钱投入资本存量。在中国的发展阶段，由于经济体的资本密集度仍就处于变动之中，这不可能是一件坏事。但是，快速增长和受到抑制的储蓄回报的结合就可能有助于解释为什么中国这么容易出现投机泡沫，尤其是在房地产行业。基于他们会以更高的价格把它们卖出去——不是卖给必然需要房产的更傻的人，而是卖给更年轻、更有钱的人——的假设，正处于工作年龄的中国人为许多都是空置的房产多掏了很多钱。

William Miller’s proto-Ponzi scheme lasted less than a year.His banks (including the Hide and Leather National Bank Of New York) closed his accounts and newspapers hounded him.He fled to Canada (eluding one pursuer by ducking into a Chinese laundry, according to Mark Gribben of the Malefactor’s Register, a blog) before the police eventually caught up with him.But he never actually ran out of investors.Even as he was escaping the country, envelopes addressed to his syndicate piled up at the post office, filled with contributions from the next generation of believers.

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威廉·米勒的庞氏骗局原型持续了不到一年。他的银行（包括Hide and Leather National Bank Of New York）关闭了他的账户，报纸对他紧追不放。在警察最后抓住他之前他曾逃往加拿大（据马克·格里本的博客Malefactor’s Register，他曾经藏身一家中国洗衣店的方式躲过一位追踪人员）。但是，实际上，他从未缺少投资者。甚至就在他逃离这个国家之际，寄到他的辛迪加的信曾在邮局推挤成山，里面装满了来下一代信徒的出资。

注释

1.piled up 堆积

例句:Work has piled up during his absence.

在他离开期间工作堆积起来了。

2.filled with 充满

例句:His voice filled with fatherly concern.

他的声音充满了慈父般的关切。

3.point out 指出

例句:He is keen to point out the benefits which the family network can provide.

他很乐意指出家庭网络可以带来的好处。

4.caught up with 入迷；赶上；捕获

例句:We caught up with the nuns.

我们赶上了修女们。

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