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经济学人:欧元区经济:保持信心(2)

Italy's domestic politics are also concerning.The government's row with the European Commission over its budget and ensuing market jitters are starting to weigh on sentiment and push up borrowing costs.The country's GDP shrank in the third quarter as consumption and investment fell.The purchasing managers' index, a closely watched survey, suggests that output also fell in October and November.An official recession——two consecutive quarters of contraction——could be on the cards.

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意大利的国内政治也令人担忧。该国政府与欧洲委员会关于其预算的争执和随后引发的市场不安已经开始给人们的信心造成压力使借贷成本增加。第三季度，该国的GDP收缩，消费和投资下滑。一项备受关注的调查—采购经理指数表明10月和11月的产出也下降了。正式的经济衰退——连续两个季度的收缩——很有可能会发生。

Italy aside, economists are not predicting a sharp deceleration. Daniele Antonucci of Morgan Stanley,a bank, expects euro-zone growth to slow from 1.9% this year to 1.5% by 2020, broadly in line with his estimate of its long-term growth potential.That might give the ECB some comfort: it means inflation is unlikely to fall.

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除意大利外，经济学家们预测不会出现急剧下降。摩根史坦利投资公司的丹尼尔·安托尼奇预计欧元区的增长将从今年的1.9%降至2020年的1.5%，这明显与他对其长期增长潜能的评估一致。这或许给了ECB一些安慰：这意味着通货膨胀不太可能下降。

Even so, weak pricing pressure is testing the ECB's resolve.In recent months headline inflation has been a little higher than the ECB's target of "below, but close to" 2%.But that largely reflects past rises in the oil prices; a recent tumble should drag it down.Core inflation (excluding food and energy) has long confounded the bank's expectations of a rise. Since 2015 it has hovered at around 1%.

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即便如此，微弱的价格压力正考验着ECB的决心。在近几个月中，整体通胀一直微高于ECB的“低于但接近”2%的目标。但这极大反映出了石油价格过去的增长；近期的一次下跌拖了后腿。长期以来，核心通货膨胀（除食品和能源以外）让该行对增长的预期感到困惑。自2015年以来，核心通货膨胀在约1%徘徊。

ECB officials are convinced that this time is different.Mario Draghi, its boss, is cheered by signs of a pickup in wage growth to 2.3% as unemployment has fallen.This is showing up in salaries rather than bonuses, signalling greater confidence in the economy.

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ECB官员们深信这一次情况不同。失业率下降，工资增长至2.3%，这些好转的迹象让ECB行长马里奥·德拉吉感到高兴。这种迹象出现在工资而非红利上，暗示着对经济更有信心。

But even in Germany, where wage growth is particularly strong, inflation is low: in October core inflation there was around 1.5%.That may partly reflect Germany's need for its many exports to stay affordable on global markets.

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但是即使是在德国这个工资增长尤为强劲，通货膨胀低的国家，其十月的核心通货膨胀约为1.5%。这或许部分反映了德国对保持全球市场价格优势的众多出口的需求。

Andrew Benito of Goldman Sachs, an investment bank, thinks that low German inflation limits price pressures across the currency area,because southern countries are trying to regain competitiveness against Germany.That means euro-zone inflation could stay subdued for the next couple of years.

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投资银行高盛投资公司的安德鲁·贝尼托认为德国的低通货膨胀限制了货币区的物价压力，因为南部国家正试图恢复与德国的竞争力。这意味着欧元区的通货膨胀可能在未来几年保持平缓。

注释

1.concerning 令人担心的

It is particularly concerning that he is working for foreign companies while advising on foreign policy.

尤其令人担心的是，他在为外交政策提供咨询的同时也在为外国公司工作。

2.weigh on 重压于；使苦恼

But it would weigh on consumer demand all the same.

但是这同样会对消费者需求产生重压。

3.tumble 暴跌

Oil prices took a tumble yesterday.

石油价格昨天一阵暴跌。

4.confound 吃惊；困惑

The choice of Governor may confound us all.

州长的选择可能会让我们所有人感到困惑。

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